As I sit in my home, trying my best to keep the suggestions and advice from the CDC, FDA, and other US Governmental agencies regarding social distancing, in order to do my part in trying to slow the spread of Covid 19, I have been wondering if there’s something more I can do.

As I wondered, I realized that I have a number of followers who get my posts regularly.  Recognizing that us “horse people” tend to be quite suspicious and skeptical of news and political reporting nowadays, I decided that I would compose a short post with the best information I have at my disposal regarding this scary and dangerous pandemic infection. I realize I have only a small following, but if even one person is benefitted, it is more than worth my time.

Covid 19 is a new virus. It is a mutation of a virus that is common among certain animal species, which has mutated and become infectious to humans. As it is a new or novel virus, no human alive has any immunity or antibodies to address it, prior to infection. There is no vaccination for it. It originated in the Wuhan Province in China in December 2019. It became an epidemic in Wuhan so swiftly that the world was taken by surprise. The world learned of it in January, 2020. Since that time more than 200,000 infections worldwide have been reported, with nearly 8,000 fatalities, as of today, March 18, 2020. In the US, as of yesterday, there were more than 6,000 reported cases, with 108 fatalities. This viral infection has now been reported in every continent except Antarctica.

The number of reported infections increases by double every 3-6 days, depending on location and actions taken by local governments.

Common symptoms of Covid 19 are headache, fever, dry cough, and occasionally diarrhea. The virus is a respiratory infection and is particularly harmful to those who have underlying health concerns, such as asthma, diabetes, COPD, etc.

The mortality rate of Covid 19 varies widely, depending on the victim’s age and any underlying health concerns. For healthy individuals with no underlying health concerns under the age of 50, the mortality rate is well under 1%, similar to the common flu, with some victims experiencing no symptoms or very light symptoms. For healthy individuals between 50 and 59 years of age, the rate rises to 1.3%. For those between 60 and 70 years of age the mortality rate goes up markedly to 3.6%. From 70-80 years, it rises further to 8%, and 80 and above to nearly 15%. For those with underlying health issues, the risk in each category increases dramatically.

Men seem to be more susceptible to mortality than women.

The US government, as well as state and local governments have instituted some unprecedented and very stringent measures to promote “social distancing” in order to slow the spread of the virus in the US. The problem here is that if the virus spreads as it did in Italy, Iran, and a number of other countries, our healthcare system would very quickly be overcome, resulting in much higher mortality rates than might occur if the spread were slowed and the peak infection rate never reached an actual peak, graphically speaking.

It is estimated by various information outlets that 60 to 80% of the world’s population will eventually become infected. While development of a vaccination for Covid 19 is under development in the US and other countries, production of such is still more than one year away.

Many people are still resisting or entirely ignoring the measures imposed by the governments and other concerned organizations to slow the spread of the virus. I am still reading many facebook comments that clearly show many people are still considering this whole thing to be a gross over-reaction by the press and politicians.

Let me give you a for-instance as to why everybody should be concerned and why everyone should be doing their part to slow the spread of this virus. In my family, my parents are in their mid-eighties. High risk. I have a son who is Type-1 Diabetic. High Risk. My wife is asthmatic. High Risk. I have two other close relatives with other serious auto-immune illnesses. High Risk. I am in my sixties. High Risk. While we are all in apparent great health, many members of my family fall into high-risk categories for this virus. I don’t think my family is an unusual case.

While you may not be concerned at all about your own health with regard to this viral pandemic, consider those around you. By the time this pandemic is a memory in our past and there is a vaccination that renders it no more of a threat than the common flu, it is likely everyone you know will know someone who died.

Folks, this is real. For your own health and safety, and particularly for that of those around you, please take this seriously and do your part. If you haven’t been doing so, start today. We don’t know how long these measures will be necessary, but this is not the end of the world. Water supplies will not be interrupted. Toilet paper will be available as soon as people quit hoarding it. Food is not going to be an issue. You will still be able to go to the grocery store when necessary. Just be careful and implement the measures prescribed for your personal hygiene and care.

This will pass. Most of us will come through it quite well and life will resume and return to normal, but for many this will be long remembered as a terrible and difficult time in the history of the world, of our country, and for them personally.

I am very grateful for the quick actions taken by the federal, state, and local government organizations. I am hopeful that when my turn comes to be sick with Covid 19 (and I consider that to be inevitable), that our wonderful healthcare system will be in control and working effectively.

As I said, we horse people are a pretty hearty breed, sometimes given to ignoring things that are of great concern to the common folk. Let not this be one of them.

TH

P.S.

And then we had an earthquake this morning in Utah! It scored 5.7 on the Richter and the epicenter was Magna, Utah, a suburb of Salt Lake City. We felt it way down here in Salem, Utah. I still haven’t heard of any serious damage, but some folks lost power and some dishes were broken. A pretty good shaker, for Utah anyway.